I'm gonna watch three things:

321:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?t...

With an average of 5.425 at the moment for Q4, not exactly with is needed to
stop the burning of cash! 489 million last Q

The price of oil:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL....

Which is still moving above the 50 DMA

And of course the dollar!

With the unemployment rate at 10.2 percent, don't think Uncle Ben and
Company is going to raise the prime rate any time soon! Being said, they
will continue to print more dollars, causing the weaker dollar to maintain
the higher cost of oil.

(Weaker dollar of course makes oil a hedge during these time)

This will also keep margins down also. With the demand for gasoline and
heating oil 15% below last years demand, this is the last thing that refineries need!
Just like Sunoco said today!
Oil is high and they can not raise the price of fuel because their is no demand!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&...

And just in time for January Q4 earnings report for your prediction. Just don't
expect a positive number for them price per shares!
Get the latest estimates, along with the current growth est (-142.0%!) here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=VLO

One positive note: If you can buy when the 52 week low appears sometime
between now and the end of the year, then you can meet your holding price with a profit!

GL