GM VAPers:

Here we go. First lets look at fundamentals for VLO.

1) Margins are around operating expense breakeven cashflow of $5. Those margins do not pay for the current crop of costly refinery maintenance turnarounds that VLO is performing at many of their plants. Those will get capitalized ( push expenses into the future- sound familiar - hint....our Federal Government)

2) Valero is currently polishing up Paulsboro and Delaware City for a sale at year end....probably to Tom Omalley ..... the refinery opportunist from Premcor and Tosco days. He will steal the refinery and Valero will need to writeoff 100s of millions.

3) The economy is peaking and getting ready to turn down again in the spring ( W recovery ) and the government will be unable to save it. Anybody look at California's finances....mirror image of our Federal governments situation, except California can not print money.

Bottom Line: VLO is a dead refiner walking. Trade only. And if you are long sell into stupid market moves.

I believe VLO the stock is entering a period of relative quiet ..... like all hot stocks that eventually go cold. There will be a time to buy her just before she wakes up. But with the coming writedowns and terrible margins, that day is months, if not years off.

Good Luck today......hopefully you are not one of the 10.2% unemployed ..... this recession is getting uglier.

AH