At $265M of EBITDA * 8 = Enterprise Value of $2.1B.

Current net debt of $950. (Debt minus cash).

Equals equity value today of $1.25B. In addition to this, there are $340M of already won lawsuit proceeds once NAM pays if the NAM appeal fails (minus taxes = $250M or so), so equity value of $1.5B is best guess for today's known information.

Looking forward, during 2010 - company will likely repay another $100 - $130M of debt just from operating earnings. (equity value of $1.6B)

Future Lawsuit might yield $0 or if last lawsuit is a good proxy up to $300M (with trebling - $900M) - net of taxes this is either still $0, or something like $250M - $600M. (could be higher, using last lawsuit as a guidepost though).

So post 2010 cash generation, post February lawsuit, the right expectation for VCI is $1.6B (lose Feb suit) to $2.2B ($300M plus trebling on Feb suit) of equity value. So over the next 12 months, assuming EBITDA does NOT expand (or shrink), this is the "expected" range with top to bottom driven by the next lawsuit. That would correspond to $32 - $44 per share at 50M shares...

Some decent "ifs" in there - but this is a good risk adjusted hold at a current price of $17 per share.