exceptional commentary? No it's rank speculation based on poorly formed theories constantly espoused on internet message boards passed on by people with no actual knowledge of what's going on. In this case it's purely preposterous. Just think, at a deal size of $1.5 billion how hard it would actually be to manipulate the stock.



What is actually represented by the stock price is the market's expectation of the certainty of the deal closing at or near the expected close date. Right now I'd bet at least 90% of the outstanding shares are held by arbs. All fundamental holders have gotten out as they've achieved huge returns in a short period of time.



The arbs are betting on if and when the deal will close. On the long side, arbs are borrowing cash to buy the stock in the hopes the deal closes at or before the expected close date. That is because they are playing the spread between the interest theyre paying on the cash borrowed and the return they'll get from the price they buy the stock at and the deal price ($52). The longer it takes for the stock to get to $52 the lower their return gets and could even go negative. On the short side, arbs have shorted the stock and invested it in risk free cash securities hoping that it takes longer to close the deal or it falls through. If it takes longer to achieve $52, they make money from the cash investment. And if the deal falls apart, they make a lot on the fact that Varian's stock price will fall to near the price it was prior to deal announcement.



At the end of the day what you get is the market's expectation of when the deal will close and at what price. When the market is highly certain of both, the difference between the current price and deal price represents approximately the risk free rate on cash less transaction costs.



On top of all this is the market's expectation of the potential for another bidder to emerge and in this case, it, at one point, was a valid potential as was written about in The Deal:



http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2009/08...



but this really came from the proxy statement Varian filed where it was revealed there were a few other bidders right up until they announced the Agilent deal and that Agilent originally offered $60/share. However, at this point I suspect no other bidders are emerging.



This is what is actually driving the stock price - internet conspiracy theories notwithstanding.