Who's buying UTS?

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Officially, Total SA has called off its pursuit of Canada's UTS Energy Corp. – but the odd behaviour of UTS shares on Tuesday suggests that investors haven't lost all hope that the struggling oil sands producer will fall into somebody's hands.

The shares opened in Toronto at just $1.20 each, down 24 per cent from Monday's close and well below the $1.75 that France's Total had offered for the stock. Since hitting that low, though, the shares have embarked upon an impressive rally. In late afternoon trading, they touched $1.60, up 2 cents for the day and 33 per cent above their low.

Earlier in the day, Richard Wyman, an analyst at Canaccord Adams, had downgraded the stock to a “sell” recommendation, with a price target of just 65 cents – down from a previous target of $2.50 – partly because he doesn't see another bid coming forward.

“In the current commodity price environment, oil sands projects are not economic to pursue,” he said in a note.

The Globe and Mail's Andrew Willis also reported earlier in the day that hedge funds, which had been expecting a higher offer from Total, were now dumping their UTS holdings.

How to explain the bounce then? Our man in Calgary, Nathan VanderKlippe, spoke with Will Lacey at FirstEnergy. His read: Petro-Canada, which released its first-quarter results on Tuesday, announced that its costs for the Fort Hills oil sands project have come down to less than $10-billion, from $14-billion. For tiny UTS, that means its share of the costs have also come down a lot – to an estimated $500-million from $1.5-billion, which is a big deal for a company with a market capitalization of just $700-million.