?
The company has earned 1.30 so far this year, and they will most likely have a loss in the 4th quarter. Lets be generous and say they make 1.30 this year.

Analysts have them earning 1.24 for 2010 per Google.

Some of their margin expansion has come from lumber prices falling this year, faster than how much they have had to cut their selling prices.

Lets say the analysts are wrong and they have 20% growth on 1.30 or 1.56 earnings for 2010. Then we give the stock a 20 p/e for the growth.
That gets you a price of 31.2 for a non sexy housing supply firm. That also assumes 20% eps growth for 2010.

Sorry I don't see it.

In my opinion revenue will continue to drop and sometime next year their gross margins will compress, dropping eps even more.

If the housing market continues to decline (my opinion) UFPI can get crunched doubly, lower margins and lower revenue. That will drop the price even further.

The housing market is NOT going to bounce back dramatically. There's too much housing overhang and too many homes going into foreclosure.

It's a well run company that has been through hell, and they will survive the storm considering their balance sheet, but the stock aint worth 38 bucks in my opinion.

Yes. I'm short.

Heck, if the stock dropped enough I would even consider switching my position and buying the stock, but its going to have to drop a LOT for me to do that right now until we see the housing market STOP falling.