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Probably my last CC TRCR post until I decide to repurchase a position.
Some Q2 thoughts: (1) Getting the message out there via some new high-powered IR and higher travel costs + time diverted away from running the business for the investor Dog-'n-Pony shows is a -ve contributor to TRCR value. TRCR needs to continue to execute and deliver and investors such as Cheeseburger/Seasoned/myself who poor over the numbers in detail will take notice and bid the price accordingly. A dog-'n-pony show doesn't change the numbers so I think the whole new IR get-the-message-out-there to pump to PPS is unproductive. If the 'I want a dog-'n-pony show to pump the PPS so I can dump my shares' didn't unload ~18 at a lofty 12.5x EV/EBITDA then I'm not sure what your looking for. Those funds spent on IR, if given to an operational wizard like Sue, would have a much, much higher return to the shareholder. If Sue can't use them then leave them as cash for the benefit of the shareholder. (2) Sue is a smart cookie. Not burning bridges with clients that have left so that they can feel comfortable to return is yet another aspect of why Sue is probably TRCRs most valuable asset. (3) TRCR stated organic growth is looking to be 15% with a hoped for 20%. 20% was always a stretch as I've posted on before. Looks like TRCR are targeting 30%+ Revenue growth in total this year so after the Q1/Q2 acquisition revenue bumps have been factored in it seems to me were back to 1-2% chained Q growth for Q3/Q4 which would bring in the total revenue growth to 37% 2009. If Q3 and Q4 show 0% growth then that gives ~35% revenue growth for the year. If TRCR think that revenue growth will be lower than 35% then we start getting top-line contraction in Q3/Q4. Seemed to me that TRCR signalled Q3 will be seasonally slow on the CC. (4) This is a very, very competitive business. Costs need to be kept under control. There was some minor +ve O/L this Q however if Revenue in Q3/Q4 is in the 1-2% chained growth then those G&A costs better slow or TRCR starts getting -ve O/L quickly. (5) Gross Margin is starting to slowly tick back up. Low hanging fruit is gone so now continued mix shift to BeyondTXT is the GM driver - but i expect only slow incremental improvements which is fine. More TRS acquisitions and less DeVenture acquisitions so that the clients can be shifted to BeyondTXT and the value realized. So in summary a good company with good prospects and continued good execution. But watch those costs like a hawk. And don't do a dumb acquisition in terms of overpaying for growth now that it looks like TRCR is telegraphing lower 15% organic. Spin Rating :
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Some thoughts on Q2
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spinvestor2... | Not rated | 30-Jul-09 08:57 pm | ||
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At what price would you repurchase?
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capetola_ro... | Rate it | 31-Jul-09 11:11 am | ||
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Companies like to save their money so typical...
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bridgejumpe... | Rate it | 3-Aug-09 09:38 am | ||
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$7-$8 would be pretty cool - pretty clos...
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my_cheesebu... | Rate it | 3-Aug-09 12:54 pm | ||
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It wouldn't surprise me to see an o...
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smallinfini... | Rate it | 3-Aug-09 05:21 pm | ||
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PROBLEM IS - OFFER FROM WHO? ...
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my_cheesebu... | Rate it | 4-Aug-09 12:27 pm | ||
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Excellent post. Do you know anywhere do they poin...
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discoverrr2... | Rate it | 16-Sep-09 10:00 am |
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