The following is some key Toll data which I have gathered. I believe this is correct but if anyone would like to verify just look up the quarterly reports.

No company is that simple to analyze. If the company decided to hold their profit margin - you might just look at orders and get a picture of where the company is going.

However business is more complicated than that. A company could decide to reduce prices dramatically, orders would most likely increase, but then the company would take a loss on the price reduction. So than you have to figure where the primary demand came from - the price reduction or an improvement in the market.

Anyway here is data from 6 quarters. The last 5 and I included the 2nd quarter in 06 to give you some idea what kind of business the company was doing in better times.

When the data is released next Wednesday - I will be looking at many things. Hopefully the reader finds this helpful.

To give you one last thing to think about look at the orders in the 1st quarter of this year. There were only 266. Now this was for the period of Nov 08, Dec 08 and Jan 09. Our economy was close to collapse in that period so the number 266 had to be taken with a grain of salt. Even so I felt the company had too much overhead to prosper with those few orders. Well last quarter the company had 837 orders (much more than I had quessed at the time) and a huge improvement over the 266.

So today I am much less bearish on the company - but I look forward to seeing the numbers next Wednesday.


In units 2nd Q - 06
Prev Backlog 8,590
+ New Orders 3,471
- Deliveries 3,942
= New Backlog 8,119

3rd Q/July 08
Prev Backlog 3,017
+ New Orders 809
- Deliveries 1,244
= New Backlog 2,582

4th Q/Oct 08
Prev Backlog 2,582
+ New Orders 536
- Deliveries 1,079
= New Backlog 2,046

1st Q/Jan 09
Prev Backlog 2,046
+ New Orders 266
- Deliveries 665
= New Backlog 1,647

2nd Q /April 09
Prev Backlog 1,647
+ New Orders 582
- Deliveries 648
= New Backlog 1,581

3rd Q/July 09
Prev Backlog 1,581
+ New Orders 837
- Deliveries 792
= New Backlog 1,626