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Message Boards Settings Strategic Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (BEE) - Quote Info
Valuation of BEE      5-Nov-09 12:38 pm    
Let's run down their portfolio and try to put a value on the company:
1. Fairmont Chicago: $2.2M in EBITDA third quarter which represents 52% of the 9-month total, so third quarter was definitely stronger than first and second quarters, but summer is probably their high season given the weather. If we annualize the 9-month EBITDA of $4.2M, result is $5.6M full year. Applying a Cap Rate of 7.5% yields a property value of $75M against current debt of $123.75M, so that property is a give-back, no equity.

2. Fairmont Scottsdate: ($2.5M) for Summer (low season), 9 month to date is $4.6M, full year $6.1M, with a cap rate of 8% given the seasonality, value is $76M against debt of $180M, that property is a goner.

3. Four Seasons Washington: $1.3M for summer (low season), 9-month $8.3M, annualize $11.1M cap at 7% given the property, $157M value, no debt, so that is equity.

4. Hotel del Coronado: Property EBITDA $32.2M for 9 months, annualized $42.9M, 7% cap=$613M against debt of $628.5M, BEE has 45% interest, not much there for BEE at this point. There is $54M in cash in that partnership, so maybe $17M for BEE's net share. North Beach Venture not bringing anything positive in, no value there.

5. Hyatt La Jolla: 9-month $5.0M, annualize to $6.67M cap at 7.5%=$89M against debt of $97.5M, no equity value there.

6. InterContinental Chicago: $12.4M 9-month, annualize $16.5M cap at 7.5% = $220M against debt of $121M, equity of about $100M.

7. InterCont Miami: $5.9M 9-month, annualize $7.87M cap at 7.5%=$105M against debt of $90M, equity of $15M there.

8. Loews: $6.8M 9-month, annualize $9.1M cap at 7.5%= $121M against loan of $118.25M, let's say no equity.

9. Marriot Lincolnshire: $1.55M, annualize to $2.06M cap at 8.5%= $24M value no debt, all equity

10. Ritz Half Moon: $3.6M annualize to $4.8M cap at 7%=$68.5M against debt of $76.5M, no equity there.

11. Ritz Laguna: $8.86M, annualize to $11.8M cap at 7%=$169M, no debt, all equity.

12. St. Francis: $11M, annualize to $14.7M cap at 7.5%=$196M, debt of $220M, no equity there.

13. Four Seasons Punta Mita: $9.2M, annualize to $12.3M cap at 7.5%=$164M, no debt, all equity

14. Prague: $6.8M, annualize to $9.1M cap at 8%=$113M against debt of $152M, no equity there.

15. Hamburg: breakeven after lease payment, no equity there

16. London: $7.9M, annualize to $10.5M, cap at 8%=$132M, against $123M loan, $9M equity

17. Paris: $1.3M contribution from leasehold annually, not much equity there, maybe $15M

18. Renaissance Paris: $1.9M, annualized to $2.5M cap at 8%=$31M, no debt, all equity

Adding up the equity equates to $701M, add in the current balance sheet cash of $88M and the proceeds from Mexico City of $54M, equals $843M.

Deduct off of that the outstanding note and credit facility of $437, results in $406M.

Par value of the Preferred is $358M, leaving $79M or about $1/share for the common. However, if you could buy back the preferred at 50% discount or less, currently trading at 30% of par, then the common would have $258M or $3.44/share value.

Plus, if economy has truly hit bottom, then numbers should start improving next year with resulting increases in equity through the portfolio. However, portfolio is operating at about breakeven now, and that does not account for FF&O, which will have to be funded from current cash and credit line. All things considered, if you truly believe that the economy has hit bottom and things can only get better going forward, this is probably a good investment long-term despite the overleveraged position of many of the properties. Those properties, as long as they are able to cover their debt payments will probably have their loans modified, stretched out, renegotiated to buy more time going out to 2014-15. That seems to be the trend, and for those properties that are negative cashflow, they should just give them back to the lender.
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starcushing

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  Subject Author Rating Time of Post (ET)  
 
Valuation of BEE
starcushing 5-Nov-09 12:38 pm  
 
Thanks, that is an excellent overview/analysis. It...
cfgII Rate it 5-Nov-09 01:07 pm  
 
What is happening now with owners that have l...
starcushing Rate it 5-Nov-09 01:19 pm  
 
Good analysis and recommendation. Even the bank r...
Harry_Wild Rate it 5-Nov-09 01:11 pm  
 
Double check your cash position. It may already in...
rosen62 Rate it 5-Nov-09 01:16 pm  
 
Balance sheet shows unrestricted cash of $88....
starcushing Rate it 5-Nov-09 01:21 pm  
 
Ok. You may be right... The sale is expe...
rosen62 Rate it 5-Nov-09 02:27 pm  
 
So the proceeds from the Mexico City are not in th...
cfgII Rate it 5-Nov-09 01:36 pm  
 
Star, what do you do for a living, are you just a ...
tylerpeglow Rate it 5-Nov-09 01:45 pm  
 
none of that crap matters.
viowatch3 Rate it 5-Nov-09 02:45 pm  
 
Wow. What a comeback after a well thought ...
davebugs Rate it 7-Nov-09 05:42 pm  
 
20 star post.
panalta2000 Rate it 14-Nov-09 08:18 pm  
 
Doesn't AIG have the debt on the Ritz, why can't t...
gone2windsu... Rate it 17-Nov-09 09:37 pm  
 
Good post, and possibly quite conservative. For e...
Animus_Reve... Rate it 18-Nov-09 06:14 pm  
 
$625,000 a room! Those kinds of numbers are c...
cfgII Rate it 19-Nov-09 09:07 am  
 
A key part of this analysis is buying back preferr...
crosscourtf... Rate it 18-Nov-09 06:24 pm  
 
The laguna Ritz would probably command higher...
starcushing Rate it 19-Nov-09 12:42 am  
 
Can you address my preferred question?
crosscourtf... Rate it 19-Nov-09 08:52 am  
 
Offering a tender at a discount on ...
uncommonval... Rate it 19-Nov-09 11:07 am  
 
Gonna finish up today. Getting stronger
utley47 Rate it 19-Nov-09 12:34 pm  
 
nice post. i have been trying to do an estimate o...
thatsnotluc... Rate it 19-Nov-09 03:46 pm  
 
OK, i went back to compare against the numbers i c...
thatsnotluc... Rate it 20-Nov-09 09:09 am  
 
I am long term optimist with BEE and short te...
modernbuild... Rate it 20-Nov-09 10:10 am  
 
From listening to management, I draw the...
cfgII Rate it 20-Nov-09 10:30 am  
 
You know... if the are not going to...
modernbuild... Rate it 20-Nov-09 03:38 pm  
 
I could envision a scenario in...
cfgII Rate it 20-Nov-09 05:17 pm  
 
I would not be surprised if a loan from ...
rosen62 Rate it 20-Nov-09 12:25 pm  
 
Lets face it guys,2010 is all guess...
bendover_be... Rate it 29-Nov-09 08:31 pm  
 
Of course more will be known i...
modernbuild... Rate it 29-Nov-09 10:26 pm  
 
I am afraid this is the wrong ...
rosen62 Rate it 29-Nov-09 11:07 pm  
 
"stagflation"... I lived ...
modernbuild... Rate it 29-Nov-09 11:36 pm  
 
Modern, I play this ...
rosen62 Rate it 30-Nov-09 12:38 am  
 
My thoughts exactly Rosen...
tylerpeglow Rate it 30-Nov-09 09:55 am  
 
And am adding this tidbit. Lum...
rosen62 Rate it 29-Nov-09 11:32 pm  
 
That comes out to less than NTA which tends to con...
kabtb (1 Rating) 30-Nov-09 08:19 am  
 
If it weren´t for the recent hotel sale and t...
kabtb (1 Rating) 30-Nov-09 08:38 am  
 
I have done little DD so far and the deeper I...
jaxchit Rate it 30-Nov-09 09:44 am  
 
The near term strategy for BEE is to 1. ...
cfgII Rate it 30-Nov-09 09:57 am  
 
FWIW I am waiting too, partly because I ...
kabtb Rate it 30-Nov-09 10:14 am  
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Strategic Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (BEE)

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