If nothing major happens between now and the end of November (roughly when the next CC will be), these are the four possible scenarios that may play out and what I believe are the percentages of them happening:

1) Break-even missed again, management allows DELISTING occur (15% chance).

Delisting would probably drop the pps about 20-30% from the current levels. This is a difficult pill to swallow as we don’t know the repercussions of a delisting (loss of credit facility, inability to raise capital, etc…) would adversely affect the company. On the flip side, if the company achieves break-even during FYE 9/30/10, this would give management a great selling point, without the expenses of running a public company (which are estimated to be between $500k-$750k per year), which would get the company to GAAP break-even for the year.

2) Break-even missed again, REVERSE SPLIT (75% chance).

I don’t like this option as I believe there is no guarantee that the company will maintain $1/share. By the way:

http://www.tvicorp.com/news/060908.pdf

See the bottom of pg 1 in this pdf. Under Maryland law (which is the state SOFO is registered in), management can implement a reverse split without shareholder approval.

3) Sale of the company occurs prior to Y/E call (5% chance).

Let’s be honest, this is management’s long-term goal. Not building and expanding the company. They want to sell. I believe McGraw-Hill would be the best suitor.

http://commonstocksense.blogspot.com/200...

I WOULD LOVE $2.75 / SHARE!!!!

4) Break-even occurs, bouncing the stock over $1 for 10 consecutive days (5% chance). Not much to say here, we would all be happy! Well, except for a few shorts out there!

The only other scenario I can see as an option is the company buy’s back stock, but given the company’s current cash position, this seems extremely far fetched. Also, I’m sure the company must maintain certain debt covenants before being able to do this (debt to equity ratio, working capital ratios, etc).

Your thoughts?