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Technical Analysis: 4 points of converging support @ $13      7-Nov-09 10:27 am    
Charts showing these 4 areas of support in the link below:

http://thetechnicaltrader.net/forum/inde...
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We usually are not trying to catch a falling knife, but sometimes when fundamental analysis shows there could be good reward then if technical factors line up then things might be worth looking at. In the case of STEC, a fast growing SSD company (solid state drive), massive EPS growth brought about a 10X price increase this year, but it has now fallen about 70% from its peak largely due to some uncertainties relatated to high levels of inventory of their product with their largest customer, EMC.

Anyway, the technical argument right now is as follows:

1.) At Gap support from large gap in May
2.) At ascending trendline support from Feb 09 - Mar 09 trendline
3.) At descending trendline support from descending channel that STEC has been trading in since July/Aug until now
4.) At exactly 78.6% Fib retracement from start of move mearsured from 5.2 after the basing at beginning of the year until the peaks in September.

It may also go without saying that the chart is oversold, the daily stochastic and weekly stochastics are as oversold as they have ever been, so a bounce is also possible due to this.

To me this all says the stock is ready for a bit of a bounce, not that it wont eventually possibly fill some of the lower gaps, as there is still the channel it is in and the possibility of an eventual 100% Fib retracement. However, seems to me that it will take further negative news for that to happen, and that with any positive news this could be the actual bottom and squeeze hard.

The two charts below show these points. You have to scroll to the right on the TOS chart to see the 78.6% Fib line intersecting current price (had to use TOS since Etrade Fib lines dont show the 78.6% line, that is why I didnt put it all on one chart).


Sentiment : Buy
Rating :
 (5 Ratings)
Rate it:
awful/not related to \pooraveragegoodexcellent

tokyopua

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  Subject Author Rating Time of Post (ET)  
 
Technical Analysis: 4 points of converging support @ $1...
tokyopua 7-Nov-09 10:27 am  
 
I disagree...I see tremendous support at $10. I th...
gringoloco2... (2 Ratings) 7-Nov-09 10:43 am  
 
Sure there is tremendous support there too, j...
tokyopua (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 11:55 am  
 
Can you plese explain-4 point converging...
vaidya243 (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 01:25 pm  
 
The first 3 are shown in white line...
tokyopua (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 01:45 pm  
 
of course they are. every basher here is...
cwtripps (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 01:48 pm  
 
I agree with gringo, you are far too optimist...
trienism (2 Ratings) 7-Nov-09 01:37 pm  
 
From my post you can see that I did not ...
tokyopua 7-Nov-09 02:04 pm  
 
Okay, from a purely technical stand...
trienism Rate it 7-Nov-09 03:29 pm  
 
From books like Steve Nison's ...
tokyopua 7-Nov-09 05:10 pm  
 
Actually, it's not overso...
star_starer... (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 07:29 pm  
 
By definition, it is...
tokyopua (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 08:21 pm  
 
I appreciate yo...
amblanco64 (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 08:25 pm  
 
i was just...
stckdiva Rate it 7-Nov-09 08:48 pm  
 
Well, hard...
tokyopua (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 09:56 pm  
 
Actually, that'...
star_starer... Rate it 7-Nov-09 10:44 pm  
 
Actually, that'...
star_starer... Rate it 7-Nov-09 10:44 pm  
 
star_starer - So you...
mbiyani (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 08:26 pm  
 
I'm not necessa...
star_starer... (1 Rating) 8-Nov-09 01:12 am  
 
I can't be...
amblanco64 (1 Rating) 8-Nov-09 07:35 am  
 
I would ag...
tokyopua (1 Rating) 8-Nov-09 11:16 am  
 
I'll try and address your other com...
trienism Rate it 7-Nov-09 03:30 pm  
 
hmmm...lemme see now andy! where would ...
divinduck13 (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 02:04 pm  
 
Considering the Cash balance, no de...
amblanco64 (2 Ratings) 7-Nov-09 02:41 pm  
 
Pretty much my point exactly.
tokyopua (1 Rating) 8-Nov-09 07:05 pm  
 
Those shorting this stock have taken it to the ext...
soundersfan... Rate it 9-Nov-09 01:49 am  
 
Futures up close to 1% certainly cant hurt th...
tokyopua Rate it 9-Nov-09 08:18 am  
 
Here comes the covering. We are in Bull mode ...
soundersfan... Rate it 9-Nov-09 10:31 am  
 
Great analysis tokyopua!
smelltherat... (1 Rating) 9-Nov-09 12:15 pm  
 
tokyopua, what do you think of today's market act...
namam75 Rate it 9-Nov-09 08:39 pm  
 
It was pretty much bullish and played out abo...
tokyopua Rate it 10-Nov-09 04:39 am  
 
Can you give us your take on today's act...
amblanco64 Rate it 10-Nov-09 04:54 pm  
 
I still have no position that I hol...
tokyopua Rate it 10-Nov-09 05:18 pm  
 
Another day where STEC closes ...
tokyopua (1 Rating) 11-Nov-09 04:06 pm  
 
well i am expecting NTAP ...
namam75 Rate it 11-Nov-09 04:16 pm  
 
Whats your take of today's act...
amblanco64 Rate it 11-Nov-09 04:07 pm  
 
Agree with tokyopua, dont...
dbkemp05 Rate it 11-Nov-09 04:13 pm  
 
Action was neutral in ter...
tokyopua Rate it 11-Nov-09 06:23 pm  
 
right on it. 13 bott...
indiandesin... Rate it 11-Nov-09 06:33 pm  
 
Looking for quick trade to 23. Swing trade that is...
indiandesin... Rate it 11-Nov-09 06:34 pm  
 
Looks like you were right on the money.
ggoo0 Rate it 12-Nov-09 11:57 am  
 
The overall market was down today, negative s...
amblanco64 Rate it 12-Nov-09 04:05 pm  
 
Oh, great, the now infamous author of th...
h_grant_h (1 Rating) 12-Nov-09 04:13 pm  
 
There was no question that there was hea...
tokyopua Rate it 12-Nov-09 04:30 pm  
 
Sweeet, someone dumped some shares ...
tokyopua Rate it 12-Nov-09 06:14 pm  
 
Updated chart, looks like $16 is baked in at this ...
tokyopua Rate it 13-Nov-09 12:16 am  
 
Whats your take on today? Seems like the stoc...
amblanco64 Rate it 13-Nov-09 04:05 pm  
 
Pretty much exactly as you described it....
tokyopua Rate it 13-Nov-09 05:05 pm  
 
Still havent gotten around to doing a chart update...
tokyopua Rate it 15-Nov-09 11:37 am  
 
As always your points of view are appreciated
amblanco64 Rate it 15-Nov-09 11:40 am  
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STEC, Inc. (STEC)

Chart for STEC, Inc. (STEC)
On Nov 30: 12.39 0.00 (0.00%)
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