Hi,

Using the following data, I ran a 5-year discounted cash flow model on SFG and I arrived at a fair value of $88.29 per share.

This yields an actual margin of safety of 47%.

My personally margin of safety is a 30% discount to the fair value. So, the stock is a potential buy for me if it's trading at $61.80 per share or lower.

On Friday, the stock closed at $46.50 per share.

I welcome any comments.


owner earnings (last 12 months): $5.71 per share
5-year expected growth rate: 9.2%
CAPM discount rate: 9.43%

owner earnings=(net income+depreciation+amortization)-capital expenditures