by no means have i been a successful trader the past year as i have had my head handed to me but little by little i am learning so don't take anything i say to the bank

i have spent a lot of time looking at charts and reading thru the multitude of bloggers over the past 24 hours and here is my take fwiw

the majority elliot wavers say that the rally has topped at 1101 and that we completed the first wave down to 1029. wave 2 has retraced almost 61.8% of the wave 1 decline, u full retracement is 1074. if they are correct in their counts, and that is a big if, the next move down, wave 3 is supposed to be the most powerfull move of the five wave pattern down off the 1101 top. according to ew theory it should retrace 1.61% of the wave 1 decline. that would make the move down here worth about 116 points; sound good so far?

we are forming a textbook h&s pattern now with the right shoulder about half formed, it would look fuller were we to hit 1075-1080 before heading down the other side of the shoulder but would suffice as it is right now.

the shorter trem charts, 15/30/60 minute charts are sporting negative divergences and rising wedges which are bearish; however, the daily charts are showing that they have a lot of room to move up before their charts become overdone.

the vix chart mirrors the averages on short and longer term periods as noted above, it does seem complacency is back at the rally last week

contrary to the apparent return of complacency is a stat i picked up on other blogs is the latest AAII stats showing bearishness has risen recently while bullishness has receded which seems more related to a bottom than a top

so go figure; in this market, up is down, black is white, on is off

not all the ewavers are bearish; dan is calling for a new high on the dow now but says it won't beconfirmed by the transports or the spx

i jumped the gun thurs and fri and loaded faz, tza, small vix; i need to learn to keep emotion out of it

no econ news this week so i don't know what will move things; maybe the fools on the hill get traction on obamacare and the market gets spooked but who knows

love to hear others thoughts