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Message Boards Settings Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) - Quote Info
quick take on the quarter      6-Nov-09 12:31 am    
Republic (core/old RJET business) made about 19 million dollars, up from last year and a fine result.

Midwest lost about 16 million dollars in 2 months, a very poor showing. Thats a -$96mil/yr run rate. After 1 listen to the call I could not divine whether any of this was related to charges, write-downs, one-time costs, etc. or if it was an operating loss. I do not believe that it was all operating loss as the 8k they filed relating to midwests financials did not show anything that ... dire.

Frontier made about $30 mil in the quarter before some charges relating to coming out of BK.

So the core of the company looks promising. Even assuming that Midwest had a $15 mil operating loss (none of it was charges) that'd put us at about $33 mil of operating profit in the quarter or a price/operating earnings of about 2 at todays prices.

Frontier is expected to say profitable and no acute concerns were expressed or brought up by analysts questions.

RJET expects the combination of Frontier and Midwest to be profitable in 2010 and that Midwest will be a "drag" on earnings in 2010.

They commented that Midwest was a good brand still highly touted in some polls and still with decent market share, but that Midwest had a "cost problem" that they were working to resolve.

They estimated $40 million of synergy savings by combining these entities.

The expect to take a write-up on Frontier and a write-down on Midwest in Q4, the net of which is expected to be a "sizeable" gain.

They seemed to state that they were the low cost provider in both Denver and Milwaukee

They estimated $1.50ish to $2.10ish per share (50-75 million) of profit after all charges for 2010. Weighted heavily towards the back side of the year. The estimate a loss in Q1 2010.

They were not bullish on growth in the core Republic business stating itw as oversupplied and perhaps in 2011 growth would resume.

They haven't freed up any cash associated with the credit card situation.

By and large ... i guess the quarter looked pretty fairly much like you'd expect.

By and large the investment thesis seems to be right on track. Earnings potential is large compared tomarket cap, thte company does not appear to be in any type of acute financial trouble, no bankruptcy risk that I can see. And management seems ... competent and fairly conservative in guidance.

So, the shares are down a good 25-30% from recent highs, but by and large ... I feel fairly content with holding my shares, I may add in the morning although my stake is from lower prices (mostly) and already pretty big.

Apologies for any errors you may find herein, and as always I'd encourage everybody to never take my word for anything or assume my interpretation skills are good or assume that I am not a completely idiotic imbecile.

:)
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quick take on the quarter
checklist_3... (1 Rating) 6-Nov-09 12:31 am  
 
it wasn't guidance of $50-75 million of profit, it...
checklist_3... Rate it 6-Nov-09 12:39 am  
 
Checklist_34, Thanks for a nice overview of wha...
justthefact... Rate it 9-Nov-09 11:30 pm  
 
...I forgot to include the specifics of Frontier A...
justthefact... Rate it 9-Nov-09 11:52 pm  
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Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET)

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