Jess--Be careful, stocks in short run trade just on money flows, not reality or fundamentals--Look at Carl Ichan's buy WCI at $18 and BK 9 months later and even junior creditors wipe out--Glickman buying CORS stock and 9 months later wiped out--I've been to RYL and competitors locations and picked aparted their balance sheet and income statement--they cannot make money in 2010--remember that all the tax credit stuff that they are extending to April '09 is already in their last Q numbers and still lost $1.20--Did you listen to conf call--Ivy Zelman nailed it--they cannot make money on existing lots because only impaired it down to 10% margin level--new deals, even if they can get 18% margins, can only add 5% at most to sales only in the 4Q (ramp up time)--not enough to move the needle--that said, this stock could behave in this irrational fashion for months--Buffet has said can do it for longer than you think/should (he also said we do not need one new house built in USA), so if you are a weekly trader, I cannot be of any value to you--if you look at fundamentals and holding period of 6-12 months, then it is about fundamentals and underlying business models. BTW, your statement is that need 1.2 new SF homes is based on homeownership rates, but focus, they the HB's really increased the units in 2002 to 2006 was that we went from 64% homeownership rates to 69%, so using bad recent historical numbers--hugh mistake, so not only do we not have increases in homeownership %'s going forward, we whould/will have downward pressure back to 64% no matter how hard the fed/treasury fights that- means we need -only starting in 2011-- 600,000 growing to 800,000 units--bottome line, RYL cannot make money competing against foreclosures for next 2-3 yrs and then mid 600-700 demand-- and even if they could make money in 2012 it would be $.40-.60 cents and a 6-8 multiple still places this in single digit--just look at what this stock did and priced from good recovery yrs of 1995 to 2000--made penny's -Good Luck I hope you make a ton of money on your trades, but you better be awfully good at knowing when to get out. Reaflare