"No institutions will want to put large positions in NVDA at risk after December, so prepare for the relentless institutional downward selling pressure from the end of the year through the ITC Import Ban."
TFG

As all bashers and pumpers, statements are exaggerated as the above TFG. I have read every analyst comment I can find. I have read every sell side and institutional research note I can find on Nvidia. Not one mentions the ITC trial. It is indicative of the fact that Rambus lawsuits are just not taken seriously anymore. That doesn't mean that you may not have a case.. It's just a fact that right now, patent lawsuits are just one of the costs of doing business in the electronics industry.

Based on recent history with Tessara and Rambus's older claims at the ITC, I would say the odds are about 40% for a preliminary ruling by the ALJ to be in favor of Rambus on Jan 22, 2010. Then again based on history, I would say that it is 50-50 whether the 6 person commission will uphold the ruling...decision will not be until May 2010. I personally think the institutions and the analysts are well aware of the above.

Suppose for a moment that the ALJ rules in favor of Rambus on Jan 22nd. This could provide an opportunity for a quick option or stock trade on Rambus, but will have no impact on Nvidia stock. I reference the posting by Susan D. of the staff's preliminary finding last month in options week. Rambus stock jumped almost $2 dollars with options spiking and corresponding sell off within the next 2 hours. Nvidia's stock was not impacted in anyway.

In addition, based on history and the ITC's staff's recommendation, any LEO that will possibly be put in place will require a bond determined at the rate of Rambus's current license's. This would be in the range of perhaps as much as $75M for 5 years(AMD's current license-the only known license rate). Also note this would not apply until the 6 person commission finds in favor of Rambus..decision deadline in May of 2010 and even more importantly it would NOT apply to devices using GDDR5. Note: Fermi will use GDDR5 as does GTxxM, and all older discrete devices can use GDDR5, but I believe by May of 2010, redesigns will be in place to use only GDDR5 on discrete cards. Ironically, the ZUNE HD using a memory controller chip from Physion, which makes it not applicable to any finding by the ITC. Note: Physion was one of the 4 chip companies that would not settle with Tessara in a recent ITC case brought by SanDisk and the ITC rulled in Physion's favor. I would think that the analysts and instutions know all of the above.

The current chipsets would probably be impacted, but again Nvidia is bringing out ION2 which has been Nvidia has stated it is "Legal Proof". The older 6100 AMD chipset would probably be banned from the US. But the overwhelming majority of these chipsets are not sold within the US.

In Summary, I believe Nvidia has a better than 50-50 chance of winning at the ITC and if they lose only a small portion of their products that are selling in the US by May 2010 would be affected. I estimate around 2-3% at most..i.e. the 6100 AMD chipsets sold in the US.

Note: No company is going to pay Rambus's unreasonable license rates which essentially wipe out their net profit margins. Especially when within a year, all of their products will be using something that has been found to not infringe on Rambus patents. I reference you to Rambus's own filings against Hynix and Nvidia where GDDR5 memory controllers are not included.

Remember, If Nvidia fights in court for years and wins, do you think Intel will ever sign(hasn't paid since 2006) and do you think AMD/ATI will re-sign in early 2011 when their current license expires.

There will be a lot of FUD though, so Nvidia stock traders do need to pay attention.

Good Luck in the SF in Jan. It's Rambus's best shot.