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Message Boards Settings PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) - Quote Info
Volume of dollars is contracting      7-Nov-09 02:38 am    
Loan losses at commercial banks are exploding. This number will rise above 5% and stay there for at least 2 years. Banks own $4 trillion in real estate loans, which are obviously going to contract by 25% (at least).

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ser...

Total loans and leases at commercial banks are currently $6.5 trillion. If they write off 5% each year for the next 2 years, they have destroyed roughly 10% of M2 (which is already contracting).

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ser...

Just being conservative, the money supply will contract by 20% over the next few years. The federal reserve cannot possibly 'print' enough money to create inflation because businesses have stopped borrowing money and borrowing as a business model is dead dead dead. Unless the fed starts mailing $100 bills to citizens without an offsetting increase in liabilities to the US balance sheet, the money supply topped out earlier this spring.

The fractional reserve 'money printing' system reached its tipping point in October of last year, and the money supply will now contract strongly as domestic loans are repaid and written off. The dollar will rally strongly because money supply is contracting right as pension obligations (ie calls on cash) are mounting.
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ncmrun

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  Subject Author Rating Time of Post (ET)  
 
Volume of dollars is contracting
ncmrun (1 Rating) 7-Nov-09 02:38 am  
 
Just for reference, M2, weekly, not seasonally adj...
ncmrun Rate it 7-Nov-09 02:43 am  
 
oops try this ...
ncmrun Rate it 7-Nov-09 02:46 am  
 
my thoughts exactly. Bank lending is the primary ...
sharppolly Rate it 7-Nov-09 07:59 am  
 
I agree with your outlook. Credit contraction...
jptgatorkid Rate it 7-Nov-09 02:45 pm  
 
A renewal of flight to safety is fast ap...
jimbocob Rate it 7-Nov-09 08:13 pm  
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PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)

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