With 14.8% of the FLOAT sold short, it's tough to get this sucker to decline. Everybody and their brother has been shorting this stock due to the lousy fundamentals and absolutely ZERO guidance given by management about spot day rates, pricing, etc., and getting beaten up in the process.

In any event, I believe that El Nino strengthened a bit this week and is now in the "MODERATE" category, which may throw a monkey wrench into the cold winter outlook.

Any semblance of a normal to warmer winter will create a carryout in excess of 2 TCF, which is freaking ugly as sin in this environment. We need the cold winter or "there will be blood".

I have seen an uptick on the physical production side, right on time with the contango runup in price, bringing alot of witheld production and backlogged well completions to market now and in the coming weeks, it is coming whether we need it or not. I figure there is still roughly 18 months of time left in the shale lease boom that started about 18 months ago (3 yr typical leases), that will keep supply up and hinder the upside in this market barring any unforseen major event.

There's also been a jump in Canadian imports as well, which is most troubling. We do not need anymore supply at the moment, the 6-10 and 11-15 day outlooks are VERY bearish looking, will lead to further builds in storage when we should be moving towards withdrawals.