Well, some genius out there has issued a demand -

"Give us your 1, 3, 6, & 12 month stock price picks for PPD. I mean you are a pro at this right?"

[Now, I'm going to presume that by "price picks" he really means price targets. Whatever.]

OK, yes I'm a professional, but I'm not going to try and represent the views of all my colleagues. We are a pretty varied and opinionated bunch by nature. So I'm just speaking for myself here.

Your question relies on a faulty assumption. I do not set price targets for securities like that. And even if I did, I wouldn't waste my time setting a pre-determined timeline for it. That is preposterous. There are far too many random factors that can (and will) influence the market price for a security.

The closest I would come to what you are asking is to calculate the intrinsic value of the asset. But it's absurd (in my opinion) to make some kind of prediction about how long it will take for the market to recognize the fundamentals and find reach equilibrium. When I analyze a company's debt or equity, I know that the market could come to the same conclusion within an hour or within a decade. I can't control the timing. As time passes, I incorporate new information and reevaluate the investment thesis. If the logic still holds, I maintain the position. It requires patience, but I've found it works pretty well.

Here are a couple bits of wisdom that I've learned:

- Unsustainable trends MUST eventually end.

- The farther perception and fundamental reality diverge, the more violent the reintroduction will be.

How those apply to PPD, I will leave up to you. As for my calculation of Pre-paid's common shares intrinsic value? Lower than book value/share.

So, to the guy who is basically asking for a 12 month stock chart IN ADVANCE (and each point on it better be close!)... I think you are looking for a Magic 8 Ball. I can't help you. Try this: http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ssanty/cgi-bi...