Analyst Boris notes that his 2012 revenue estimate of $62
billion is $500 million above the street consensus. I think
big pharma should sell at an enterprise value of 2.5 times
revenue--PFE should have enterprise value of $155 billion
in 2012. Assuming net debt has been reduced to $0 by that
year, PFE should sell for $19 to $20--$155 billion/8 billion
shares.
Although I am overall bearish, I am not playing it that way.
I am 60% cash, 20% long stocks, and 20% short index ETFs.
There is just no place for a stock with such little upside
in that portfolio mix--my longs have to be more unique.
The only thing that I believe can really change the outlook
for PFE is bapineuzumab, and ELN tells me that I shouldn't
hold my breath. ELN total market cap is down to $3 billion--
how much can its 49.9% retained interest in the new JNJ
AIP program be worth?

http://www.investor.jnj.com/releasedetai...

Without Bapi, PFE is simply a covered call write at $15.