XO convinced me that $2.50 eps is about right. They lay it out in their guidance, they give you almost all the numbers (EBITDA, DA, I) to compute it.

I suppose one can argue whether a P/E of < 10, and P/FCF of < 10 is cheap. Even if NRG's EBITDA is completely frozen at its current price, NRG can grow earnings/s and fcf/s by around 10% a year via share and debt buybacks funded solely from their FCF and existing cash. Even if you take the draconian position that the company's core EBITDA is completely frozen, that they deserve a P/E of < 10, the compounding effect of share buybacks should double NRG's price in the next 6 years. That's a lot better than your money market, treasuries, or stock market indexes will give you.

Of course, it's likely that in the next 6 years (I won't hazard a guess when), wholesale will start growing again, and when that happens IPPs inevitably see margin expansion. You want to be around when they get the dual benefit of organic earnings growth and margin expansion. I'm not smart enough to predict when that might be, but I'm content waiting around in something which I believe will give me better returns than a money market or the stock market indexes in the meantime.