First of all, I think this is a great, refreshing post because it raises an issue that could very well happen but no one else seems to be bringing up. You have a well-constructed hypothesis. But all things considered, I think people will eek out the credit card if needed to take advantage of a Black Friday bargain or two. In Macy's case, I expect they will have some sort of $10 gift card offer or $25 off coupon (or the like). Macy's real concern will be who else does the same. If Target, JCP, Bon-Ton/Carson's/etc, and so on also do the same, it will be a real struggle for Macy's.