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#rd Quarter Production estimate by Tr8derVic      2-Nov-09 01:54 pm    
Sonris Monthly/Quarterly Gross and Net
MM = millions, M = thousands

2009 Gross Totals
Jan 1334 MMcfe (42 Mbbls + 1085 MMcf) or 43.05 MMcfe/d
Feb 1165 MMcfe (36 Mbbls + 1165 MMcf) or 41.61 MMcfe/d
Mar 1271 MMcfe (39 Mbbls + 1039 MMcf) or 41.00 MMcfe/d
..........................................................................................................Q1/09 Totals = 3770 MMcfe (116 Mbbls + 3075 MMcf)

Apr 1156 MMcfe (38 Mbbls + 926 MMcf) or 38.53 MMcfe/d
May 1183 MMcfe (41 Mbbls + 937 MMcf) or 38.15 MMcfe/d
Jun 1138 MMcfe (41 Mbbls = 891 MMcf) or 37.79 MMcfe/d
..........................................................................................................Q2/09 Totals = 3472 MMcfe (120 Mbbls + 2753 MMcf)

Jul 1152 MMcfe (45 Mbbls + 882 MMcf) or 37.16 MMcfe/d
Aug 1138 MMcfe (42 Mbbls+ 884 MMcf) or 36.71 MMcfe/d

Quarterly ACTUAL reported Production NET to TMR (Including non-sonris)

Q1/08 = 3731 MMcfe (184 Mbbls + 2626 MMcf) or 41.0 MMcfe/d
Q2/08 = 3645 MMcfe (188 Mbbls + 2516 MMcf) or 40.1 MMcfe/d
Q3/08 = 3060 MMcfe (174 Mbbls + 2017 MMcf) or 33.3 MMcfe/d
Q4/08 = 3522 MMcfe (219 Mbbls + 2210 MMcf) or 38.3 MMcfe/d

Q1/09 = 3340 MMcfe (199 Mbbls + 2147 MMcf) or 37.1 MMcfe/d
Q2/09 = 3444 MMcfe (231 Mbbls + 2054 MMcf) or 37.9 MMcfe/d

Q3/09 EST 3300 MMcfe (240 Mbbls + 1860 MMcf) or 35.9 MMcfe/d

Monthly NET to TMR I estimate as approx:

2008
Jan = 41.0 MMcfe/d
Feb = 40.3 (Natural declines offset somewhat by Goodrich Cocke #7)
Mar = 41.6 (GC-7 + BSM-5 kick in)
Apr = 42.0 (Biloxi down 6 days)
May = 34.8 (Biloxi down)
Jun = 43.5 (Biloxi up)
Jul = 40.1 (Everything up, natural production declines)
Aug = 38.3 (natural declines + shutins offset by 3.0 MMcfe/d boost in chalk wells)
Sep = 21.4 (Canes + Delacroix shut-in about 16 to 18 MMcfe/d)
Oct = 36.12 (Delacroix still shut-in)
Nov = 38.28 "
Dec = 41.95 (Delacroix up + Austin Chalk boost)

2009
Jan = 38.14 (Natural declines most fields)
Feb = 36.87 (Natural declines most fields)
Mar = 36.33 " "
Apr = 38.22 Oil increases as gas declines
May = 37.84
Jun = 37.49 For all of Q2 oil increases more than offsets gas declines.
Jul = 36.3
Aug = 35.9
Sep = 35.6

The Oil ratio in Q1/09 was 36%. Q2/09 was 40.2% Q3 EST 43.6%

Monthly Net oil production to TMR I estimate as follows:

2008
Jan = 59,000 bbls
Feb = 62,000 bbls (Goodrich Cocke # 7 kicked in 3672 bbls net, operator Stone Energy)
Mar = 64,000 bbls (BSM5 + 1483 bbls net)
Apr = 65,000 bbls
May = 64,000 bbls
Jun = 59,000 bbls
Jul = 59,900 bbls
Aug = 59,234 bbls
Sep = 54,866 bbls
Oct = 70,276 bbls
Nov = 67,857 bbls
Dec = 80,867 bbls (Two new chalk wells added 12,189 bbls)

2009
Jan = 71,409 bbls
Feb = 61,226 bbls
Mar = 66,360 bbls
Apr = 72,000 GC-7 re-kicks in + Stone Energy operated picks up.
May = 78,000 Weeks Bay-15 starts partial month
Jun = 81,000 Weeks Bay-15 full month
Jul = 82,700
Aug = 80,000
Sep = 77,300

All imho and good luck,

Vic
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pocilujko

31/Female
Illinois


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  Subject Author Rating Time of Post (ET)  
 
#rd Quarter Production estimate by Tr8derVic
pocilujko 2-Nov-09 01:54 pm  
 
Base of Tr8derVic's Q3/09 EST 3300 MMcfe (240 Mb...
pocilujko 2-Nov-09 01:58 pm  
 
Thats from ther 2d Q 10Q Crude oil prices dec...
nat246 Rate it 2-Nov-09 02:26 pm  
 
"So if in the third Q Oil is $75-$80 per...
pocilujko (1 Rating) 2-Nov-09 05:45 pm  
 
I got a Reply from Tr8derVic on my ...
pocilujko (1 Rating) 2-Nov-09 06:41 pm  
 
Ed, Thanks for all your posts. I have read them...
kctangmd Rate it 2-Nov-09 02:00 pm  
 
kctangmd: Tr8derVic will give his Estimate...
pocilujko Rate it 2-Nov-09 02:23 pm  
 
Production estimated at 35.55 MMcfe/d. O...
pocilujko (1 Rating) 2-Nov-09 03:31 pm  
 
A couple of things of note; In t...
sginbr (1 Rating) 3-Nov-09 12:49 pm  
 
sginbr: Very Good post. Ju...
pocilujko (2 Ratings) 3-Nov-09 01:43 pm  
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