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Message Boards Settings Medallion Financial Corp. (TAXI) - Quote Info
Real Men of Genius ...      4-Nov-09 11:05 pm    
http://seekingalpha.com/article/170884-d...

I would like to take a moment to examine the Real Man of Genius article posted by Mr. Seeingalpha.com. His first glaring oversight was ignoring the fact that TAXI just closed one SPAC (HLD ... now UEI) and will most likely close another SPAC (HMR) within two months. The gains realized from "founder's shares" of these two SPACs combined will add at least $3.00 to the share price at TAXI.

But, I would like to take a moment to comment on his main points.

------------- Point 1 ---------------

He said, "The company’s net available income is $10.8 million (last year it was $15 million). With a dividend of $0.76 and outstanding shares of 17.55 million, the payout is $13 million. There are, of course, other sources of cash such as depreciation and amortization, but the shortfall cannot support the continued dividend payment. The payout ratio, as it currently stands, is about 123%." ...

Well ... Let's remember TAXI's comments during the second quarter report that spreads between the cost of money and the rates on their portfolio have never been larger in the company's history. And, the price of medallions have been appeciating whereas almost every other asset class has depreciated. And, loan quality remains high. I would expect results to have improved further in the upcoming third quarter report. And, let's remember that the historic average for TAXI's dividend yield is not 9% but 6% ... TAXI was trading at a 20% higher pps when they were paying a 6% dividend. Even if net income did not improve, they could support a 6% dividend ... and there is the share buyback program.

--------------- Point 2 ------------------

He said, "The RSI has broken below the 50 level, the daily and weekly MacD indicators have turned negative and the 21 day moving average is tracking below the 50 day moving average. There is a large wedge pattern that has formed in the last several months and currently we are sitting on a significant support line at around $7.82 or yesterday’s low."

Uh, that applies to the entire financial sector. This is definately not a Medallian specific trading pattern ... and only a Real Man of Genius would try to portray it that way ...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=TAX...

--------------- Point 3 ----------------

He said, "In the wake of the CIT bankruptcy, the outlook for recreational spending, and the prospects for expansion in small business it would be safe to assume that the “TAXI” business model would be under pressure and the likelihood that it can sustain such a high dividend payment in question."

Didn't we learn from Goldman Sachs' example that when competition goes away, your performance may actually improve. People will still spend money on recreation and small businesses will still need money to operate and expand. Less competition along with greater margins means better performance not worse. Better performance means greater net income ... which means a higher dividend. But, the real story here is his complete disregard for the investment gains made already (and potentially made in the next two months) from the SPAC's. Cheers.
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blueskydriv...

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Real Men of Genius ...
blueskydriv... (1 Rating) 4-Nov-09 11:05 pm  
 
And, one more consideration concerning future reve...
blueskydriv... (1 Rating) 5-Nov-09 04:10 am  
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Medallion Financial Corp. (TAXI)

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