So your argument is that a supply increase isn't a negative because it's not on a competitive technology node. Huh? That makes no sense. A supply increase is a supply increase period.

It actually is competitive, but that's besides the point. They are ramping 65nm 6F2. That's better than anything Micron is running outside their latest 50nm technology (i.e. likely their volume production as of today is on an inferior technology to what Promos will be running, but they will overtake Promos quickly).

The reason it is a supply increase is that Promos doesn't have the cash to run it's fab, so their current output is a very small percentage of the company's capability. Now that Elpida is providing the cash by buying the wafers, this fab will ramp to full tilt.

Nanya, Inotera, Promos, Powerchip, and Rexchip all massively cut wafer starts when DRAM crapped out in 2009. All of those companies cut wafer starts by >50%. Most cut 70 or 80%.

Rexchip and Powerchip are running wide open now. That output will start hitting the market in a meaningful way this month.

Promos will start ramping immediately with the Elpida deal.

Nanya and Inotera have been gradually increasing starts and will move to full tilt in Q1 2010 as Micron's 50nm process gets ramped there.

2010 will be a top 6 year all time for DRAM bit growth rate....even with zero new DRAM fabs coming online.