Monday’s recovery session, which started out with bullsh
huzzahs, slinked into the close clinging to a remnant of the
early win. Often a market reveals its true colors in the final hour of trading; all through the spring and summer, the markets finished strong. Now, each final hour carries the seeds of another market meltdown.
So October provided its usual market gyrations, although
the mkts avoided a massive selloff. What does November hold in store? Since 1980, November has been the most-consistent
winner, rising in 23 of 29 years; it is also a consistently strong months, averaging a 1.2% gain since 1980.
This November features a regular apple-cart knocker-over,
in the first meaningful midterm elections since the President’s election. Out in the heartland, early hope is now mixed -- with concern about bailout and stimulus spending. We could see the incumbent party getting rapped on the knuckles today in a few states, most notably New Jersey and Virginia.
What matters most to technicians is the trend, and there have been major disturbance in the uptrend. Also seeing it is not the trend break, but the response to the trend break, that matters. If the market starts seeking lower lows from here, fragile bullish sentiment could shatter. GOODLUCK