My back-of-the envelope guess is for Q4 sales of $ 250 - $ 252 million, and EPS of 75 cents - 80 cents. It turns out that this is in line with what Value Line expects. There will be some negative news, in that we're closer to the candle dumping income coming to an end, and food service contracts will begin to reflect lower costs, more likely in the second half of 2010. So we will need some positive news to offset this, if we want a higher stock price.

So, to move this stock, I think EPS (excluding unusual items) will need to be at least 90 cents, and the gain will have to come at least in part from higher than expected sales. 90 cents would mean either a 10% after-tax margin, which I think is very doubtful, or sales of about $ 260 million, which I think is possible (but a stretch). I really can't see much more than 80 cents unless sales are an upside surprise.

I hope I'm being too pessimistic, but I think the string of positive earnings surprises is coming to an end. But even at $ 3 EPS, the stock seems reasonably priced, so I'll hold for another day at least, and hope.