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Re: jsmith4367 - did you cover your short?     23-Oct-09 06:48 pm    
No way...this thing goes much lower...I'm still sitting on big profits from shorting after the LIFC deal, and can afford to ride this awhile.

When revenue starts to DECLINE and all the costs are cut to the bone...we'll see how their CF drops off...and how the market reacts to this never-ending debt burden. Actually we already know how the numbers will look since you posted the analysis today. Thanks, much appreciated!

Face It...Burzik made the same mistake so many people far smarter than her have made....overpaying for a 'growth driver' when the correct strategy was to maintain VAC's position with competitive pricing and do selective bolt-ons which complemented their strength with VAC.

She could have leveraged their scale to keep KCI the clear leader in vacuum assisted woundcare and expanded that woundcare position....but instead she chose to lie and pretend the VAC monopoly could be defended and overpaid for another product that couldn't possibly keep growing enough to pay down the debt.

Here's a lesson for you - Inexperienced CEOs justify these bad deals with financial models that imagine businesses like LIFC will keep growing in perpetuity and pay huge premiums at the peak for growth engines. LIFC was already priced for perfection (market overpays for growth), there were no synergies, -- she paid a massive premium and took on debt to do it!!! Insane.

LIFC is already proving it can't offset the decline in VAC (see this quarter) and that debt is looking like a bigger and bigger noose around her neck. You'll note the BD guy who did the LIFC deal is no longer with KCI. I predict she'll be gone soon too.


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jsmith4367

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Just curious. You had a chance in July/August to cover...
manic.inves... Rate it 23-Oct-09 12:46 am  
 
Re: jsmith4367 - did you cover your short?
jsmith4367 Not rated 23-Oct-09 06:48 pm  
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Kinetic Concepts Inc. (KCI)

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