The dust is settling. It's time to start looking forward again. Drag out your calculators, study those tea leaves and chicken entrails. Time for the

Rusty Spike Award Q3--2009

Give us your best guestimate of the Q3 revenues for KSU. Only one rule:

1. Must be at least $100,000 away from a pre-existing guess.

The data:

Mar 31, 05------$368.3M
Jun 30, 05------$381.1M
Sep 30, 05------$384.6M----489.6k carloads
Dec 31, 05------$388.1M----477.8k carloads
Mar 31, 06------$388.4M----463.3k carloads---84.2% operating ratio--eps $.11
Jun 30, 06------$413.1M-----465.3k carloads---81.2% operating ratio--eps $.24
Sep 30, 06------$415.7M-----483.4k carloads---81.4% operating ratio--eps $.32
Dec 31, 06------$442.2M-----494.3k carloads---80.1% operating ratio--eps $.41
Mar 31, 07------$411.3M-----456.8k carloads---82.4% operating ratio--eps $.21
Jun 30, 07------$427.1M-----464.1k carloads---80.5% operating ratio--eps $.30
Sep 30, 07------$444.1M-----470.0k carloads---77.9% operating ratio--eps $.48
Dec 31, 07------$460.3M-----482.0k carloads---76.4% operating ratio--eps $.56
Mar 31, 08------$450.6M-----452.3k carloads---81.5% operating ratio--eps $.39
Jun 30, 08------$486.2M-----465.3k carloads---78.5% operating ratio--eps $.56--$1,045/carload
Sep 30, 08------$491.5M-----465.6k carloads---77.4% operating ratio--eps $.52--$1,055/carload
Dec 31, 08------$423.8M-----441.6k carloads---78.5% operating ratio--eps $.40--$960/carload
Mar 31, 09------$346.0M-----384.0k carloads---86.0% operating ratio--eps ($.08)--$901/carload
Jun 30, 09------$341.3M-----378.0k carloads---87.3% operating ratio--eps $.07---$903/carload

According to the weekly carloading reports on Railfax Transmatch KSU should report about 394k+ carloadings for the period. The "tide" has turned. My best guess--

$396.2M

hoping for eps $.27 on approx 99M shares

beagle