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IMF Says Overvalued Dollar Used for ‘Carry Trades’      7-Nov-09 04:01 pm    
By John Fraher and Rainer Buergin

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund “carry trades” across the world and the currency may still be overvalued even after its slide this year.

“There are indications that the U.S. dollar is now serving as the funding currency for carry trades,” the IMF said in a report published today. “These trades may be contributing to upward pressure on the euro and some emerging economy currencies.” While the dollar “has moved closer to medium-run equilibrium,” it is still “on the strong side.”

With investors able to borrow at near-zero interest rates in the U.S., some economists are concerned that markets may become distorted as traders plough those funds into riskier assets. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who forecast the financial crisis in 2006, said Nov. 4 that investors are milking the “mother of all carry trades.”

The MSCI All-Countries World Index has gained about two- thirds since March and sugar has soared 90 percent this year. The dollar has dropped 13 percent against a basket of currencies from its major trading partners in the past seven months.

The euro’s exchange rate “is on the strong side of its equilibrium,” the Washington-based IMF said.
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