Hi Bodium,
Just came in from some weekend chores...winter's coming!
Thanks for yours and Patriot's replies. I agree our world fiat experiment puts us in totally different circumstances than 30 years ago; when many more still recalled what real money was and the US was a creditor nation. Looking at the last cycle charts without considering all the new variables; such as the HFT programs w/nearly unlimited dark capital, and the BRIC effect will get you killed, IMHO.
The black box programs can go intuitive one day(or minute), and counter-intuitive the next, charts be damned. That's why Goldman can boast a near perfect trading record; front run the market; and either create or not trade against the tide.
HL will rise based on fundamentals over months/years, but is also subject to the piggy bank effect, IMHO. The hedge funds will sell ALL commodities if their screening programs indicate a technical sell; regardless of HL's story; locking in profits at the expense of retail longs.
I know that "finger on the trigger" comes from experience Patriot!
Been both a holder and trader over the years; and now realize the best bet is concentrating on a few with the VERY best fundamentals, and keep a little powder dry; no matter what the "experts" say.