Being a practicing petroleum geologist since 1980, recently did a study on the "heart" of the Barnett Shale play in Johnson Co. TX. It was apparent due to the erratic production cumulative figures of closely proximate wells, that wells that made over 2BCF were located very near wells that made less than 200 MMCF over the same period of time. There were a lot more 200MMCF wells than 2 BCF wells.


These wells were very expensive to drill and lease, some of them with over 2 4000 foot laterals, and all frac'd at great expense. Lease costs were sometimes over $10K per acre (much more than exorbitant.)

Conclusion: l Probably less than 12% of these wells will ever pay out. Gas in place is very different than gas in the sales line. Drilling of these wells has come to a virtual halt compared to the past five years.

There is a hell of a lot of shale gas out there,
but at less than $5 per MMBTU, I seriously doubt that this play can be economical.

2nd Conclusion: There ain't going to be any flood of shale gas (of any real longevity) from the Barnett. Other shales will probably be just as erratic...

AransasDude