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Message Boards Settings Georgia Gulf Corp. (GGC) - Quote Info
Don't Be Fooled by the Third Quarter Earnings Number      4-Nov-09 08:37 pm    
Georgia Gulf reported net income of $230.2 million for the third quarter of 2009. However, like sausage or legislation, you have to be very careful about what is going into this net income number.

Specifically: In the third quarter of 2009, Georgia Gulf successfully exchanged $736 million of its outstanding notes for 1.3 million shares of its common stock and 30.2 million shares of its convertible preferred stock. The debt exchange resulted in a $400.8 million pre-tax gain.

You really need to back out that gain for the numbers to make sense for valuation purposes. The $9 "earnings/share" number is a mirage.

Here are the Q3 numbers to focus on for now:
Operating income $38.6 million
Interest expense 30.7 million

A meaningful number is operating income minus interest expense: $7.9 million. This is EBT for the third quarter. That is $31.5 million annually if you multiply by four, which would be naive since Q3 is their big quarter. After tax we would be looking at about $20 million.

At $16, with a market cap of about $540 million, GGC trades at about 27x the high end of what I think are possible annual earnings. I would prefer to see a multiple of about a third of that (9x) which would put the stock at $5.33.
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  Subject Author Rating Time of Post (ET)  
 
Don't Be Fooled by the Third Quarter Earnings Number
ctx_coverag... Not rated 4-Nov-09 08:37 pm  
 
While your analysis seemed professional, I think t...
chem_plasti... Rate it 4-Nov-09 09:28 pm  
 
In their best year (2006), they had 156MM ope...
tdrusso Rate it 4-Nov-09 09:44 pm  
 
2006 numbers only include legacy GGC's c...
chem_plasti... Rate it 4-Nov-09 09:54 pm  
 
I'm not saying that they are bankru...
tdrusso Rate it 4-Nov-09 10:00 pm  
 
That's right. I am surprised today's buyers can't ...
thegreedpol... Rate it 5-Nov-09 09:25 am  
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Georgia Gulf Corp. (GGC)

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On Dec 18: 16.39 Up 0.56 (3.54%)
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