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Georgia Gulf reported net income of $230.2 million for the third quarter of 2009. However, like sausage or legislation, you have to be very careful about what is going into this net income number.
Specifically: In the third quarter of 2009, Georgia Gulf successfully exchanged $736 million of its outstanding notes for 1.3 million shares of its common stock and 30.2 million shares of its convertible preferred stock. The debt exchange resulted in a $400.8 million pre-tax gain. You really need to back out that gain for the numbers to make sense for valuation purposes. The $9 "earnings/share" number is a mirage. Here are the Q3 numbers to focus on for now: Operating income $38.6 million Interest expense 30.7 million A meaningful number is operating income minus interest expense: $7.9 million. This is EBT for the third quarter. That is $31.5 million annually if you multiply by four, which would be naive since Q3 is their big quarter. After tax we would be looking at about $20 million. At $16, with a market cap of about $540 million, GGC trades at about 27x the high end of what I think are possible annual earnings. I would prefer to see a multiple of about a third of that (9x) which would put the stock at $5.33. Rating :
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| Subject | Author | Rating | Time of Post (ET) | ||
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Don't Be Fooled by the Third Quarter Earnings Number
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ctx_coverag... | Not rated | 4-Nov-09 08:37 pm | ||
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While your analysis seemed professional, I think t...
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chem_plasti... | Rate it | 4-Nov-09 09:28 pm | ||
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In their best year (2006), they had 156MM ope...
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tdrusso | Rate it | 4-Nov-09 09:44 pm | ||
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2006 numbers only include legacy GGC's c...
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chem_plasti... | Rate it | 4-Nov-09 09:54 pm | ||
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I'm not saying that they are bankru...
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tdrusso | Rate it | 4-Nov-09 10:00 pm | ||
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That's right. I am surprised today's buyers can't ...
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thegreedpol... | Rate it | 5-Nov-09 09:25 am |
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