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Horizontal wells typically cost more than 2X that of a vertical well. It is usually somewhere around 2.5X to 3X; depending on drilling difficulties that are encountered (dip, faulting, etc). Costs can decrease substantially as one drills more wells (learning curve of what not to do). Also, there are multiple zones in the Mancos which are stimulated by fracturing the tight reservoir in a vertical well. In a horizontal well, only one of the four or five zones will be targeted unless multiple laterals are drilled which would increase the cost dramatically. 10X vertical production is the high end, it is more realistic to have production from horizontal wells that averages 4X to 6X that of vertical wells. In some cases, production is no better.
The last Mancos well that was completed was a good producer; much better than other Mancos wells that have been completed by GSX. One would hope that GSX drills in this area.
It should also be mentioned that $10 million would not make much of a drilling program in the Uinta Basin (Riverbend). GSX needs to sell its pipeline/compressor system to allow for participation in a drilling program in 2010. They will also need to sell additional assets or have another equity offering which could be highly dilutive (100 million shares @ $0.40/sh = $40 million).
The future price of natural gas in the Uinta Basin is anyones guess. It could average $3/mcf in 2010 or it could average $7/mcf. My guess is that natural gas will be in the $4.50 to $5.50 range as an average during 2010. Much depends on how the USA's economy recovers this winter and next year. Unemployment is presently 10.2% which is not a good sign for economic growth.
Just my thoughts.
RMG
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