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So, if buying FC is not shooting fish in a barrel (as Warren Buffett describes no brainer investments) then I don't know what is. Robert Whitman, the CEO has publicly stated on the last 2 conference calls that the company will do a minimum of $20m in ebitda this year and generate atleast $25m in FCF. By the end of the third quarter, they expect to pay down all of their remaining debt and have a $1 per share in cash on their balance sheet. They have a strong backlog of bookings which gives them great visibility into revenues the next few quarters. In addition, they have launched new online products around customer satisfaction and employee training that are essentially pure margin and a source of recurring revenue. For those who were asleep on the last conference call, management stated that they have a new 7 figure deal with Advanced Auto Parts across their 3,000 store base.
This company and CEO have a consistent track record of aggressively buying back stock. If you recall, management did a dutch tender for over 10 percent of the company at $9.25 per share last fall. The CEO has over 2m options that will expire in less than 2 years and the strike price is over $10. As soon as the company has the cash in hand next quarter, you can expect management to begin another large buyback. Given that the stock trades less than 15,000 shares per day now, this stock could easily double simply by the company buying back its own shares.
If they earn $20m in ebitda, you are buying this company for less than 3 times ebitda today. By the end of the year, they will have zero debt and $1 in cash.
You decide whether it's a 2 in putt. At 5 times, next year's potential 25m plus in ebitda, you are looking at a $10 stock.
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