The last time I asked this question we were stuck in the mid $3's, and a lot of us had been praying for a market pullback to grab it in the $2's, which never happened. The thesis at that time was that waiting was dangerous, because the stock could turn and run at any time, for no reason at all. Which it did, along with its sub $4 mate, XTEX. But the reason for buying was the prospect of a return to distributions in the $1.50 range by 2011, making the eventual yield too good to let go.

Things are different now. Even if only the mineral business is sold, something will have to be done about the $1.45 minimum distribution, which would then be on the back of a smaller company, I get that. In some form or fashion this is going to be diluted. Maybe the best we can hope for is something like a $1 distribution based on today's stock price, in the 20% yield range. That's okay, but it doesn't make me cream my drawers.

The other possible outcome of course is the full boat proposal, an NGP cobb salad of warrants and rights that might produce a sub $1 distribution, but add up to a value package in the $7-8 range in the relatively near term, say going into 2010. Off a $5 stock price, again, that's nice but not a world beating bargain, considering the what ifs.

So, where does one take a stand and take a large position again? In my mind the value proposition becomes undeniable when we're at $4 or below, but I don't know if we ever get there. We did breach $5, and things can move pretty quickly on the cents side of the equation. Maybe, $4.30?