Oversupply of vessels is what you are overlooking. Rates teeter on a knife's edge of supply v. demand regardless of the overall tonnage being hauled. Case in point is that rates now are about where they were in 2002 when the tonnage hauled worldwide was half what it is now. So much more being hauled, yet no higher rates? Why is that? There are sufficient number and tonnage of vessels to handle what needs moved. At this point, the fleet will be 10% larger this time next year. Will tonne miles rise up to meet that supply? Probably not. So rates, as the FFAs and shipowners and most pundits agree, are likely to be weak. And late next year is crucial for EXM. Many of their ships will need new time charters at that point.