Ernie,

I've tended to agree with your recent posts (upcoming events, XL184 possibilities, doubtful about buyout in near future-though you can never say never). My sense about XL's technology/platform is that it is great for kinases, but that is a very crowded field.

My concern about many of their programs is that (as discussed earlier regarding GBM), being active is not enough, you need to be better than what's already out there. That may or may not be true with the PI3KIs, but they have a shot.

The other issue about targeted therapy relates to combinability, a huge issue for all the new agents. Avastin is a blockbuster partially because it appears to combine well with most chemo and be of some benefit. Many oral TKIs do not combine in a beneficial manner with chemo and so all targeted therapy is not the same Antibodies seem to do better for unclear reasons).
Finally, the other technology I'd watch out for in cancer and other areas, has to do with targeted biologics. Take a look at T-DM1 (a modified Herceptin linked to a cytotoxic like molecule that appears to have activity in Herceptin progressors). Also, there is a company called Micromet that has targeted therapy (BiTE) which is very specific and had rather amazing activity in a phase 1 trial. Then there are always vaccines, though despite the positive Provenge data, I don't think we've figured them out yet. T-DM1 is in phase 3 now and there are other similar linked molecules following that will provide competition, but I don't see that as any sort of knockout blow for XL's technology since XL does a lot of what big pharma does in terms of small molecules. While I don't see the value of platform as being zero, it's value would be significantly enhanced with a marketed drug and good sales.
The stock may go up in the short term prior to the AACR meeting with subsequent price depending on results compared to competition and expectations which is virtually impossible to predict. Should be interesting, but do your own diligence. XL usually does some sort of a deal before the end of the year so you never know.

The "Wiz"