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let's talk earnings....     28-Oct-09 11:43 am    
Back of the envelope.....

18.37mm shs out plus 10.89 wrts.
So let's say 29mm

09 After tax profit targets - 38mm
2010 After Tax profit targets - 49.5mm
2011 After tax profit targets - 64.3mm

The incentive shares of 11.27mm are not released unless these targets are hit.

09 EPS - 38mm/29mm = 1.31
2010 EPS - 49.5/33mm = 1.50 (assume 4mm shares released each year if they hit targets though I dont have the exact number on me)

Stock - $10

09 PE - 10/1.31 = 7.6x
10 PE 10/1.50 = 6.7x
Very cheap for a rapidly growing play on the Chinese consumer. And the warrants are even cheaper. Deal is closed so warrants are like deep in the money options now.

Comments/corrections welcome.....


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laughingriv...

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  Subject Author Rating Time of Post (ET)  
 
let's talk earnings....
laughingriv... Not rated 28-Oct-09 11:43 am  
 
Thanks. Any ideas on when the warrants will bec...
karma_x_pol... Rate it 28-Oct-09 12:12 pm  
 
All the details will be in the 8-K which desc...
laughingriv... Rate it 28-Oct-09 03:42 pm  
 
do you know who covers the name? I guess manageme...
f3e2la Rate it 28-Oct-09 01:27 pm  
 
Brean Murray was their underwriter on the SPA...
laughingriv... Rate it 28-Oct-09 05:48 pm  
 
from S-4 - release of extra incentive shares. Mak...
laughingriv... Rate it 28-Oct-09 04:32 pm  
 
the disparity between the stock and the warra...
f3e2la Rate it 6-Nov-09 04:34 pm  
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