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Re: HELLO Quasi, Numbersssss, please read and respond     20-May-08 11:18 pm    
Welcome to the board, btw. If I may offer one bit of commentary. Although no blockbuster news came out of the shareholder meeting, what did come out is the fact that they again are affirming the $1B-$1.5B loss estimates on the HELOC portfolio. Further, they again affirmed that their current loss reserves of over $500M are enough to cover at least 4Qs of chargeoffs in the HELOC portfolio. They have already charged off $300M approximately. Thus, if $1B is correct regarding HELOC losses they only have $200M left to reserve for and if the $1.5B is more accurate, then they have only $700M left to reserve for. They are not expecting any serious amount of chargeoffs in any other portfolios, and apart from the first lien portfolio, their institutional holdings are doing fine. Thus, this is simply a question of when, not if Etrade will return to normal.

In other words, it's a waiting game. Once all these bad loans are washed through the system, what are we left with, but a brokerage that is second to none and makes great profits, and an institutional side of the business that will earn great returns as well.

Moreover, look at Etrade's capital position. They were at $700M by the end of 1Q. Mr. Layton stated that they still had $500M in asset sales planned in the near future, most in this Q. Their goal is to get to $1B of excess cash. Thus, they will have $200M JUST FROM ASSET sales left to do whatever they need to do. They just sold the Indian assets for $150M. They are only $150M from their goal of excess cash in the $1B range. The year end goal is for a risk-based capital ratio of 13%, which is better than any bank I can think of. Because they no longer originate loans or buy them wholesale, increased customer cash deposits through the year, and the loans running off, they will smash that goal of 13% risk-based cap ratio. Put in perspective, JPM has a 12.4% ratio.

Not only that, but they will be reducing debt as much as possible. $700M in debt reduction at the parent is planned this year. $450M will be retired for 25M shares, i.e. at $18/share. They have already reduced the debt by $100M. Thus, only $150M in debt reduction is left for the year and the $550M was accomplished through minimal dilution, especially considering the severely reduced and manipulated share price.

Hope that helps. Best regards.
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All right you two. You have said nothing to my prior "...
savyinvesto... 20-May-08 11:01 pm  
 
Re: HELLO Quasi, Numbersssss, please read and respond
prescient11 20-May-08 11:18 pm  
 
Thanks so much for the debt recap, prescient1...
savyinvesto... (2 Ratings) 20-May-08 11:26 pm  
 
Lest I forget, I for one, am very happy that you h...
prescient11 20-May-08 11:21 pm  
 
Yes, the first time I posted I was amazed at ...
savyinvesto... (1 Rating) 20-May-08 11:31 pm  
 
Hi si11, glad I check in before going to bed...sor...
numbersssss 20-May-08 11:28 pm  
 
Hey Numbersss, I just wrote up a blip of how ...
savyinvesto... (1 Rating) 20-May-08 11:49 pm  
 
Numbersssss, I respect your decision but just...
dig4gem Rate it 22-May-08 02:58 am  
 
Hi Savvy, Sorry for late reply -- have been busy l...
quasimatter
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Well I did a write up last night and submitte...
savyinvesto... Rate it 21-May-08 11:57 am  
 
No problem -- thanks for doing this. I s...
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Thank you for all your hard work. The b...
donaldtay1 Rate it 21-May-08 12:05 pm  
 
Savy-I for one thank you for getting out...
methusalaw (1 Rating) 21-May-08 12:15 pm  
 
Thanks for treating me like a lady,...
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By the way -- I also wanted to ask you, what is th...
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The first time you go through their "invitati...
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Thank you very much savvy for contributi...
flinchba Rate it 21-May-08 12:37 pm  
 
Yeh, when it posts.
savyinvesto... Rate it 21-May-08 12:41 pm  
 
Yeh, when it posts.
savyinvesto... Rate it 21-May-08 12:41 pm  
 
Need your input ... I am now e-m...
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Me too. I'll change it a...
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Yeh, but the whole articl...
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savyinvesto... (1 Rating) 21-May-08 01:51 pm  
 
I am now e-mailing to a couple other individu...
savyinvesto... Rate it 21-May-08 12:37 pm  
 
My vote is... E*Trade: What the Analy...
ibicars (1 Rating) 21-May-08 09:38 pm  
 
I did change title and sent second ...
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E*TRADE Financial Corporation (ETFC)

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