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I am of the opinion economic growth will be anemic for years to come. Marked by high unemployment, a struggling housing market and consumer, relatively weak energy demand.
Historically it takes quite a long time for an economy to rebound from deflating bubbles, and this one is quite large. Bernanke's strategy of replacing one bubble with another will end badly. Eventually the free market must be allowed to work, which means a lot more deleveraging and pain ahead. So i stand by my "stagnant growth next couples years" prediction and it could very well be longer. As far as S&P analysis being conservative, their price target EXC...I wouldn't rely on the bozos. They have proven time and time again to be completely incompetent, inept. Their list of bonehead calls be it their rating agency, or stocks is frankly too long to list. I do agree nuclear is the obvious answer to our energy needs. Wind, solar, et cetera great but those sources have their limitations and we need a reliable baseload provider. Electric cars will rule the streets in the next 15 years. Huge bonanza for utilities. Although republicans have the nuclear solution right, they have most everything else wrong. My fear is coal energy will continue to be subsidized, and nuclear energy providers will never see the premium they deserve. EXC is presently trading at a premium because of its large nuclear exposure (over 2 times book) while other utilities trade closer to one. If something in their favor is not passed or pushed backed EXC could get hit. Agree long-term EXC is a good bet, like the entire Utility space but EXC will certainly fall with the market if we see another downdraft, it has proven that before. The good news utilities as a sector have lagged the general market considerably in this upturn, so i suspect they will get hit less hard if this V shaped recovery scenario does not come to fruition. A big wildcard, will the utility commissions play politics and not support rate hikes (regulated side of business). Could very well happen in this economic environment. As you alluded to a lot of variables here. Place your bets. Rating :
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Exelon gave a 2010 earnings forecast of $3.60 to $4.00 ...
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mooseonapla... | (1 Rating) | 2-Nov-09 04:43 pm | ||
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Where did they give that? I haven't seen it.
T...
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kennykabuki | (1 Rating) | 2-Nov-09 05:34 pm | ||
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I read it on the Dow Jones newswire actually....
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pet_wolveri... | (1 Rating) | 4-Nov-09 03:30 pm | ||
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Re: EXC Dead Money
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mooseonapla... |
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5-Nov-09 01:23 am | ||
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I 5-starred your post. I always ap...
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pet_wolveri... | (1 Rating) | 5-Nov-09 08:01 am | ||
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Always good to share opinions,...
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mooseonapla... | (1 Rating) | 5-Nov-09 11:41 am | ||
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I think the best 'bet' in an unclea...
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adnovak81 | (1 Rating) | 5-Nov-09 11:19 am | ||
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One thing you need to consider in any pricing on E...
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WKE235 | (1 Rating) | 10-Nov-09 02:56 pm | ||
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Do not forget the subsidized wind energy from...
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mbaaggie | (1 Rating) | 10-Nov-09 03:18 pm | ||
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What's your opinion about FPL for the next few yea...
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peristenton... | (1 Rating) | 10-Nov-09 03:18 pm | ||
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I'm strongly considering FPL myself, right no...
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pet_wolveri... | (1 Rating) | 12-Nov-09 04:54 pm |
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