Exelon gave a 2010 earnings forecast of $3.60 to $4.00 well below estimates.

Place a 12 PE ratio on the above you are trading below $46.

A 12 PE ratio is rather generous for a company with stagnant growth prospects for the next couple years.

Add to that the regulated side of the business is at the mercy of the utility commission who have always been less than generous with their rate hike decisions, and will be even less so in this economic environment.

The merchant side is competing with Natural Gas prices which will be at depressed levels for some time to come based on overflowing supply.

Also, the coal industry's lobby seems to be winning the carbon tax battle so i doubt EXC will see the benefits of cap and trade anytime soon.

Bottom line EXC looks to be heading back to $42. A 5% dividend should attract buyers.