I calculated the last 5 years they had an average of $1.5 billion loss reserves and about $413 million reduction in that - about 25%. Currently the account sits at $3 billion. If the incremental $1.5 billion performs the same and kick in $100 million more for the old reserves we get say $500 million reduction over the next 5 years. At a 4% discount rate that's worth $410 million. Say current equity is $700 million we'll be at $1.1 billion in 5 years.

Now I've noticed that investment income and consulting income has covered run-off expenses in 2007 and 2006 but not 2008. Investment income was cut in half as interest rates fell precipitously. Before that we made a small profit.

We've also had some gains from acquisitions at the moment of acquisition.

Let's say equity is $1.3-$1.4 billion in 5 years on account of these unknowns.

So excluding acquisitions and since they take a few years to yield dividends anway, we are looking at a double in 5 years. If we trade at the current 1.1 or so book value, let's say $1.5 billion, we see a return to shareholders who bought at 1x book a few months ago of 16% or 11% for buyers at current price.

Does anybody see a return scenario more or less than 11%-16% over the next 5 years?