Home starts next year and "the bottom being in" are just speculation and hype by investment bank "analysts" (read that as shills) who want to pump up the stock market so they can make more money off suckers.

Here's facts, not speculation:
Yesterday's news reported a big jump in foreclosures.

More and more ARMs are resetting every day, increasing mortgage payments by a lot of $$$ for a lot of homeowners, who will not be able to make increased payments. Net result, a lot more foreclosures coming.

Unemployment is up and no one thinks the job situation in this country will get better soon.

Oil prices are up again, and natural gas along with it. Cost of gasoline, and cost of heating a home now that we're in Winter heating season, will hurt tapped-out consumers who will not be able to spend; this will be a lousy holiday shopping season for retailers, and the economy will continue to spiral down.

So the economy is in terrible shape. And the foreclosure issue is the killer for new home sales. Foreclosures are pushing home prices down, making it impossible for homebuilders to sell a new home at a profit. Take a look at the profit margin for HBs. It's in the NEGATIVE, meaning HBs lose money on every home they sell.