So here is what I responded (PART 2)...

So, so many patients get acetaminophen cannot take acetaminophen orally for 2 days - 10+ days because they are ill or recovering post-op, and acetaminophen in the bottom (if it can be given at all) has very unreliable dosing (you can imagine why!), that almost every patient will get it intravenously.

There is little doubt in my mind that after approval, their will be 20+ million vials sold in 2010, 50+million in 2011, and a slow rise to about 120+ million over the next few years. That does not include the fact that the CDA will probably approve it 6-12 months after the FDA allowing reciprocal decision making, and that would probably add an extra 5+ Million in 2011, 10+ million in 2012, and 40+ million at the end.

When it is all said and done, CADX will probably pocket $2.50 per vial (30% profit margin after avg NA price about $9 per vial) after expenses which gives then after expense earnings of $250 million per year (in lets say 2014) which is $5 EPS. A conservative P/E of 12 makes is a $60 stock!

I would give Acetavance a 90% chance of approval in the US at some point (especially considering the much more side-effect prone NSAID IV Ibuprofen is already approved), and about a 50% chance by 11-13-09, a 30% chance by the regular approval date in Feb 2010, and a 10% chance that they will ask for more time / more clinical information.

Nit only is IV acetaminophen in use in almost every other major western country, but there are literally a 100 of studies in progress studying it's most effective use, the focus most recently in literature on how it actually reduces days of hospitalization (which is a huge money saver).

So the question is.... are you willing to gamble a 600% return over 6 years on a 60%-90% approval chance? Almost ever medical professional I work with, has said "yes".

On the other hand, I feel a little queasy that my standing buy at $9 (left over from the way) keeps getting filled today. I was upset I didn't get it filled months ago, I now I am a bit happy but also wary that it is getting filled now. ANother 10K shares and I cannot hold the price support myself.


EB