I posted this on the WIN board on September 22, 2009; the numbers probably haven't changed much:

Premise: share price supported by high dividend; if any of the four rural telecoms cut their dividend, the share price will plummet.

The four rural telecoms: WIN, CTL, IWA, FTR.

Market cap: CTL at $9 billion; WIN, $4 billion; FTR, $2 billion; and IWA, only $0.5 billion.

Total dividends paid annually/annual cash flow: CTL: $830 million/$900 million (covered); WIN: $400 million/$1 billion (covers with lots of room to increase dividend); FTR: $300 million/$730 million (covers with lots of room to increase dividend; IWA: $53 million / $83 million (covers with some room to increase dividend, but won't).

Cash/debt/payout ratio: CTL: $60 million/$3 billion/107%; WIN: $245 million / $5 billion / 120%; FTR: $450 million/$5 billion/200%; IWA: $6 million/$500 million/300%.

So,

They all have lots of debt, but FTR and IWA are in much worse shape with regard to debt/cash and both FTR and IWA have huge payouts: 200% and 300%.

With cash flow, all can cover their dividend, but WIN and FTR can easily cover annual dividend, but FTR with already huge payout (200%) and much worse debt situation, not likely to increase dividend even if it could cover. But WIN could easily cover increased dividend and WIN's payout at 120% is well below that of FTR (200%) and IWA (300%).

Bottom line: FTR with huge debt problem and dividend payout of 300%. The dividend is at risk.

IWA is in better shape, but a much smaller company; could have trouble holding dividend.

CTL and WIN have more cash to work with; stronger balance sheet; smaller payout (by percent) but they have made acquisitions which need to be managed.

If I stay with rural telcos for the dividend, I would stay with WIN but Obama's initiative to provide digital to rural America could be a game changer. Cables are already being laid, but it will take a few quarters for that to play out.

Bottom line: first pick -- WIN; then CTL. IWA and FTR more speculative. P/Es for all are in 9 - 14 range except for IWA with a P/E of 22.