Having the network done by the end of calendar year 2011, one year later than earlier projections, still seems like an aggressive target. Regardless, in their press release they state that,....

"After achieving 2.0 million homes pass, we expect maintenance capital expenditure to stabilise at below 10% of turnover".

So by year end 2011, CAPEX costs could be in the HK$150m range. If they don't grow (core) EBITDA from the current HK$475m in 2009, the new dividend policy of 50-75 percent of "adjusted free cash flow" could equate to a dividend range of 60 to 90 cents per ADR in 2012. (But lots of things could happen by then). I would think that the ADR share price would at least double by 2012, and that ignores the potential of taking market share from PCCW. In the meantime, keeping current core EBITDA flat at HK$475m, the 2010 dividend should range from 25 to 40 cents a share. That would equal a dividend yield of about 4.5 percent at today's share price.

The worries about pricing are nothing new. As long as I have held this stock, pundits have always questioned why people would sign up for HKBN broadband services. Questions like, "Do people need all that speed, how will they pay for it", always persisted. Yet they have grown the past two years despite all the pessimism. And I like Ricky's statement,...

"The establishment of HKBN is not purely for commercial reasons. We have the mission and
duty to elevate and maintain Hong Kong as the preeminent “Free Information Hub” in the
region. Since I do not see our competitors doing this effectively, and even though I do not want to (because I think we can make more money in the short term by selling our current
assets), we have to continue this mission until we reached our BHAG".

Really looking forward to seeing the 40 cent dividend in December.