While your overall math is correct and could prove to be accurate as far as total revenue is concerned, what you are not realizing is there is only 65 million shares outstanding and 80 million fully diluted shares. The company only employees something like 35 people. Let's take the middle of your range and assume they generate $70 million from DNA. The total expenses for last year was $22 million. That would mean they would be earning $48 million per year which even using fully diluted shares would yield about $.60/share in earnings. Take a conservative 20 multiple and you are at $12 stock price.

Now let's look at it with my optimistic and rosy assumptions. If the drug is as successful as I hope, the revenue for DNA will be several times more that the billion in your example. Based on all the cancers they are trialing right now (14 in all) I think the revenue could be substantially higher than one billion. Using the same 7% royalty rate and you have a potential cash cow just from 1 license agreement.

Add to the revenue the potential of their own drug CUDC 101 and the potential revenue from the debiopharm agreement plus their other drug candidates and this stock if it doesn't get bought out too soon could be so much more than your 2-3 bagger IMO.

Analysts are projecting Dendreon's revenue at a couple billion for a drug to treat prostate cancer. In addition that drug only extends the lives of those patients on average 4 months. The results so far with DNA is far greater in the BCC studies. The 67 year old according to the most recent presentation had a month to live and based on a google search lived until he was 70. He died in June of this year I believe. I know BCC is a small potential market but if it is successful on the other cancers, the drug will be generating billions and billions annually for DNA and we will all be very happy.