|
Stocksage
Good point. So lets look at the business. From 07 revenue is dropped from 76.6 to 41.6 to 36.2. Income has dropped from 34.8 to 16.4 to 14.3. Cash has dropped from 32.7 to (22.6) to (8.3). In that time, looking at a nominal stock price, the stock went from 46 (about peak in 07) to 30 to 23-ish. My point is I see no significant growth - even if the retail sector grows at a nominal rate over the next 12 months, which is questionable- to get the stock rising, and they do not have the same revenue models that Target used to provide. So I'd summarize the revenue might stay flat, and margins might be lower. This means the dividend will have to drop, as cash flow is negative (or they borrow and this hits the expense line). With an announcement like that, the stock drops. Right now the dividend is a good boost for the stock. This company has little expense control - there are few expenses! Can't layoff 10% of the workforce, as that is like 1/2 a person! So they will use cash. I do think they have been very diligent with the dividend, but it must be stressed and they must be considering dropping it. They only have like 9M in cash, and the cash burn is around 9M now. Without a big new order I do not see sustaining, least of all growth. I cannot bank on a new order in this economy, so I still think short sales would be my choice. The bet is no significant orders means the dividend gets reset lower, and there will be a step drop in the stock price. I do agree I cannot predict this timing, but I'd say after two more quarters something will have to give. Sentiment : Sell Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (1 Rating) |
, |
|
Page
1
of about
1
First
| < Prev
| Next >
| Last
|
Messages in Topic
| Subject | Author | Rating | Time of Post (ET) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
As a long term Buy and Hold on CHKE I have enjoyed the ...
|
tizod |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
11-Jun-09 04:00 pm | ||
|
I think Cherokee 'owns' the brand names (licensing...
|
or71747 | Rate it | 11-Jun-09 05:57 pm | ||
|
they do. But what VALUE do the names have? Th...
|
tizod | Rate it | 12-Jun-09 01:18 pm | ||
|
and it is not just CHKE...Iconix etc. do...
|
tizod | Rate it | 12-Jun-09 01:23 pm | ||
|
If you dont' understand something a...
|
stocksage49 | Rate it | 12-Jun-09 01:28 pm | ||
|
I think the cost per employee ...
|
DavidJL11 | Rate it | 23-Jun-09 01:45 pm | ||
|
LOL!
You learn anythin...
|
stocksage49 | Rate it | 26-Jun-09 04:11 pm | ||
|
I work in the industry and I know Cherokee very we...
|
jjonesyah | Rate it | 24-Jun-09 05:23 pm | ||
|
Thanks for the note on CHKE. Your summary mak...
|
tizod | Rate it | 26-Jun-09 05:43 pm | ||
|
Wow! Excellent post. I think you are right on...
|
beingassimi... | Rate it | 7-Jul-09 03:11 am | ||
|
Not sure what is exit strategy is, but I...
|
jjonesyah | Rate it | 16-Jul-09 03:00 am | ||
|
LOL! You gave yourself away with y...
|
stocksage49 | Rate it | 4-Aug-09 02:59 pm | ||
|
Stocksage,
You're missing the...
|
mcbenz55200... | (1 Rating) | 17-Sep-09 04:13 pm | ||
|
Well, I agree. I could ha...
|
tizod | Rate it | 18-Sep-09 11:58 am | ||
|
If you bought puts o...
|
stocksage49 | Rate it | 20-Oct-09 02:11 pm | ||
|
Re: sold
|
tizod | (1 Rating) | 21-Oct-09 10:22 am |
|
Page
1
of about
1
First
| < Prev
| Next >
| Last
|

