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Message Boards Settings Cherokee Inc. (CHKE) - Quote Info
Re: sold     21-Oct-09 10:22 am    
Stocksage
Good point. So lets look at the business. From 07 revenue is dropped from 76.6 to 41.6 to 36.2. Income has dropped from 34.8 to 16.4 to 14.3. Cash has dropped from 32.7 to (22.6) to (8.3). In that time, looking at a nominal stock price, the stock went from 46 (about peak in 07) to 30 to 23-ish. My point is I see no significant growth - even if the retail sector grows at a nominal rate over the next 12 months, which is questionable- to get the stock rising, and they do not have the same revenue models that Target used to provide. So I'd summarize the revenue might stay flat, and margins might be lower. This means the dividend will have to drop, as cash flow is negative (or they borrow and this hits the expense line). With an announcement like that, the stock drops. Right now the dividend is a good boost for the stock.

This company has little expense control - there are few expenses! Can't layoff 10% of the workforce, as that is like 1/2 a person! So they will use cash. I do think they have been very diligent with the dividend, but it must be stressed and they must be considering dropping it. They only have like 9M in cash, and the cash burn is around 9M now.

Without a big new order I do not see sustaining, least of all growth. I cannot bank on a new order in this economy, so I still think short sales would be my choice. The bet is no significant orders means the dividend gets reset lower, and there will be a step drop in the stock price. I do agree I cannot predict this timing, but I'd say after two more quarters something will have to give.


Sentiment : Sell
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tizod

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  Subject Author Rating Time of Post (ET)  
 
As a long term Buy and Hold on CHKE I have enjoyed the ...
tizod 11-Jun-09 04:00 pm  
 
I think Cherokee 'owns' the brand names (licensing...
or71747 Rate it 11-Jun-09 05:57 pm  
 
they do. But what VALUE do the names have? Th...
tizod Rate it 12-Jun-09 01:18 pm  
 
and it is not just CHKE...Iconix etc. do...
tizod Rate it 12-Jun-09 01:23 pm  
 
If you dont' understand something a...
stocksage49 Rate it 12-Jun-09 01:28 pm  
 
I think the cost per employee ...
DavidJL11 Rate it 23-Jun-09 01:45 pm  
 
LOL! You learn anythin...
stocksage49 Rate it 26-Jun-09 04:11 pm  
 
I work in the industry and I know Cherokee very we...
jjonesyah Rate it 24-Jun-09 05:23 pm  
 
Thanks for the note on CHKE. Your summary mak...
tizod Rate it 26-Jun-09 05:43 pm  
 
Wow! Excellent post. I think you are right on...
beingassimi... Rate it 7-Jul-09 03:11 am  
 
Not sure what is exit strategy is, but I...
jjonesyah Rate it 16-Jul-09 03:00 am  
 
LOL! You gave yourself away with y...
stocksage49 Rate it 4-Aug-09 02:59 pm  
 
Stocksage, You're missing the...
mcbenz55200... (1 Rating) 17-Sep-09 04:13 pm  
 
Well, I agree. I could ha...
tizod Rate it 18-Sep-09 11:58 am  
 
If you bought puts o...
stocksage49 Rate it 20-Oct-09 02:11 pm  
 
Re: sold
tizod (1 Rating) 21-Oct-09 10:22 am  
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Cherokee Inc. (CHKE)

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On Dec 24: 16.57 Up 0.39 (2.41%)
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